The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Barcelona are favourites: 80% to win against 8%. Attack against defence: Barcelona should create more, 2.71 expected goals a match against 1.17. Read the table with care: Barcelona have taken 2.7 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruña | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12.0 | −1.0 | 1.35 | 1.37 |
| Barcelona | 1 | 8 | 24 | 21.3 | +2.7 | 4.04 | 0.99 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.