Points. 5 points from 7.5 xPTS (−2.5). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 12th in the league, but 17th in the table. Source of the shortfall: extra goals conceded (+1.3 vs xGA).
Attack. 1.40 xG per match — 10th of 20 (league average 1.64): an average attack for this league. Scored 11 goals from 9.8 xG — finishing is on par.
Defence. 2.24 xGA per match — 19th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.64). Conceded 17 goals from 15.7 xGA — 1.3 more than expected: opponents are scoring almost everything and the goalkeeper is not helping. But plenty of chances are allowed too — it is not just bad luck.
Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.36 points per match: expected pace 1.1 points per match vs the current 0.7.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 0.71 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.19. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 6.0 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | home | 2026-10-11 | 1.55 |
| Villarreal | away | 2026-10-18 | 0.34 |
| Rayo Vallecano | away | 2026-10-25 | 1.12 |
| Valencia | home | 2026-11-01 | 1.94 |
| Real Betis | home | 2026-11-08 | 1.00 |