The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Atlético Madrid: 48% against 27%. Attack against defence: Atlético Madrid should create more, 1.71 expected goals a match against 1.28. Read the table with care: Atlético Madrid have taken 3.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 15 | 7 | 7 | 9.6 | −2.6 | 1.35 | 1.46 |
| Atlético Madrid | 2 | 7 | 16 | 12.8 | +3.2 | 1.96 | 1.21 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.