Points. 7 points from 9.6 xPTS (−2.6). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 6th in the league, but 9th in the table. Source of the shortfall: how goals are spread across matches: goal difference ±0 almost matches the expected −0.8, so points are slipping away in close games.
Attack. 1.35 xG per match — 11th of 20 (league average 1.64): an average attack for this league. Scored 10 goals from 9.4 xG — finishing is on par.
Defence. 1.46 xGA per match — 7th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.64). Conceded 10 goals from 10.2 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed.
Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.37 points per match: expected pace 1.4 points per match vs the current 1.0.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 1.00 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.41. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 7.1 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga | away | 2026-10-11 | 1.89 |
| Atlético Madrid | home | 2026-10-18 | 1.19 |
| Racing Santander | away | 2026-10-25 | 1.49 |
| Villarreal | away | 2026-11-01 | 0.70 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | home | 2026-11-08 | 1.80 |