The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Espanyol: 47% against 26%. Attack against defence: level, 1.42 and 1.33 expected goals a match. Espanyol are 2.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 15 | 7 | 7 | 9.6 | −2.6 | 1.35 | 1.46 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 7 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | 1.20 | 1.49 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.