Málaga vs Athletic Club: match prediction
MálagaVS
Athletic ClubThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win16%Málaga
Draw20%
Away win63%Athletic Club
Expected points, home0.70
What to expect
Athletic Club are favourites: 63% to win against 16%. Attack against defence: Athletic Club should create more, 1.92 expected goals a match against 1.17. Málaga are 4.5 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
How they arrive
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga | 20 | 12 | 5 | 9.5 | −4.5 | 1.03 | 2.03 |
| Athletic Club | 7 | 11 | 16 | 20.2 | −4.2 | 1.80 | 1.30 |
Recent matches
Malaga — 
Racing Santander 1:2
Real Betis — Malaga 2:1
Alaves — Malaga 1:1Malaga — 
Real Sociedad 2:5Malaga — 
Espanyol 1:1
Osasuna — Athletic Club 1:1Athletic Club — Real Sociedad 2:1Athletic Club — 
Getafe 4:0
Levante — Athletic Club 3:1
Valencia — Athletic Club 0:0Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table → · LaLiga: next round predictions