The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 35% home, 26% draw, 39% away. Attack against defence: Athletic Club should create more, 1.58 expected goals a match against 1.37. Athletic Club are 3.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 12 | 10 | 11 | 13.8 | −2.8 | 1.39 | 1.57 |
| Athletic Club | 8 | 9 | 12 | 15.3 | −3.3 | 1.58 | 1.35 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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