Pitch Radar

Málaga vs Espanyol: what the numbers say

LaLiga · Round 8 · 11 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win21%Málaga
Draw27%
Away win53%Espanyol
Expected points, home0.89

What to expect

A slight edge to Espanyol: 53% against 21%. Attack against defence: Espanyol should create more, 1.68 expected goals a match against 1.14. Espanyol are 2.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Málaga20735.4−2.40.812.00
Espanyol15779.6−2.61.351.46

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table →