The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Espanyol: 44% against 32%. Attack against defence: Espanyol should create more, 1.81 expected goals a match against 1.43. Espanyol are 2.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | 16 | 7 | 7 | 8.1 | −1.1 | 1.40 | 2.28 |
| Espanyol | 15 | 7 | 7 | 9.6 | −2.6 | 1.35 | 1.46 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.