Rayo Vallecano vs Málaga: match prediction
Rayo VallecanoVS
MálagaThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win61%Rayo Vallecano
Draw21%
Away win18%Málaga
Expected points, home2.04
What to expect
Rayo Vallecano are favourites: 61% to win against 18%. Attack against defence: Rayo Vallecano should create more, 1.71 expected goals a match against 1.38. Málaga are 4.5 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
How they arrive
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 14 | 11 | 12 | 13.5 | −1.5 | 1.40 | 1.72 |
| Málaga | 20 | 12 | 5 | 9.5 | −4.5 | 1.03 | 2.03 |
Recent matches
Real Sociedad — Rayo Vallecano 1:0Rayo Vallecano — 
Celta Vigo 3:0Rayo Vallecano — 
Elche 0:3
Getafe — Rayo Vallecano 1:1
Osasuna — Rayo Vallecano 1:1Malaga — 
Racing Santander 1:2
Real Betis — Malaga 2:1
Alaves — Malaga 1:1Malaga — Real Sociedad 2:5Malaga — 
Espanyol 1:1Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table → · LaLiga: next round predictions