Points. 3 points from 3.9 xPTS (−0.9). By quality of play (xPTS) the club sits exactly where it is in the table: 15th. Points match the quality of play.
Attack. 1.52 xG per match — 11th of 18 (league average 1.65): an average attack for this league. Only 5 goals scored from 6.1 xG (−1.1): the chances are there, the finishing is not. If the chance quality holds, the goals will come.
Defence. 2.60 xGA per match — 18th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.65). Conceded 11 goals from 10.4 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed.
Playing to its level. Points (3) are close to the quality of play (3.9 xPTS).
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 0.75 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 0.83. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 4.2 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brest | home | 2026-09-20 | 0.38 |
| Rennes | away | 2026-10-10 | 0.32 |
| Le Havre | away | 2026-10-17 | 1.14 |
| Le Mans | home | 2026-10-24 | 1.42 |
| Strasbourg | away | 2026-10-31 | 0.90 |