Auxerre
Monaco
AuxerreMonaco · away, 21 Nov 2026
Win 24% · draw 25% · defeat 51%
The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A tough run.
Points. 10 points from 10.4 xPTS (−0.4). By quality of play (xPTS) the club sits exactly where it is in the table: 14th. Points match the quality of play. Inside that balance more goals conceded than expected (+3.9 vs xGA), but finishing runs above expectation (+0.8 vs xG) — one cancels the other.
Attack. 1.22 xG per match — 16th of 18 (league average 1.59): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 13 goals from 12.2 xG — finishing is on par. What they create is what they score.
Defence. 2.01 xGA per match — 15th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.59): allows plenty of chances near its own goal. Conceded 24 goals from 20.1 xGA — 19% more than expected. The gap is small and usually closes over a season.
Playing to its level. Points (10) are close to the quality of play (10.4 xPTS).
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 1.00 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 0.89. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 4.5 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Win | Draw | Defeat | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away | 2026-11-21 | 24% | 25% | 51% | 0.96 | |
| home | 2026-11-29 | 35% | 21% | 44% | 1.27 | |
| away | 2026-12-05 | 18% | 21% | 60% | 0.76 | |
| home | 2026-12-12 | 20% | 22% | 59% | 0.81 | |
| away | 2027-01-02 | 14% | 23% | 63% | 0.65 |
Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Auxerre and it will write when results and performance diverge.
Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.
| Place | Club | P | Points | xPTS | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 10 | 13 | 18.0 | −5.0 | |
| 13 | 10 | 10 | 10.3 | −0.3 | |
| 14 | 10 | 10 | 10.4 | −0.4 | |
| 15 | 10 | 8 | 9.7 | −1.7 | |
| 16 | 10 | 8 | 9.6 | −1.6 |