Lorient — Toulouse 2:2

Lorient

2:2

Toulouse

Ligue 1 · 12 Sep 2026 · season 2026/27

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Score2:2

Home xG0.69Lorient

Away xG1.34Toulouse

Expected points0.86 : 1.86

Who deserved it

A draw, but Toulouse created more (1.34 xG against 0.69) — points dropped.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Lorient	2	0.69	+1.3	0.86
Toulouse	2	1.34	+0.7	1.86

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
36'	Ibrahima Baldé	Lorient	0.14	Panos Katseris
38'	Noah Mbamba-Muanda	Lorient	0.13	Panos Katseris
47'	Casper Tengstedt	Toulouse	0.49	Cristian Cásseres Jr.
67'	Thomas Jørgensen	Toulouse	0.06	Cristian Cásseres Jr.

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
47'	Casper Tengstedt	Toulouse	0.49	goal, header, from a corner
36'	Ibrahima Baldé	Lorient	0.14	goal
38'	Noah Mbamba-Muanda	Lorient	0.13	goal

Shots: Lorient 10, Toulouse 13; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 0 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Lorient 0.39, Toulouse 0.29: about even. In the second half xG was Lorient 0.30, Toulouse 1.04: a small edge for Toulouse. Lorient scored 2 from 0.69 xG: more than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

Shot data: Understat. xG rates the quality of a chance; it is not a forecast of the result.