Pitch Radar

Lyon vs Nice: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 7 · 17 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win79%Lyon
Draw14%
Away win7%Nice
Expected points, home2.50

What to expect

Lyon are favourites: 79% to win against 7%. Attack against defence: Lyon should create more, 1.98 expected goals a match against 1.14. Read the table with care: Lyon have taken 1.8 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Lyon25119.2+1.81.991.18
Nice14554.1+0.91.091.96

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →