Pitch Radar

Troyes vs Lens: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 7 · 17 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win17%Troyes
Draw16%
Away win67%Lens
Expected points, home0.66

What to expect

Lens are favourites: 67% to win against 17%. Attack against defence: Lens should create more, 2.30 expected goals a match against 1.45. Lens are 4.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Troyes16544.0+0.11.242.10
Lens15548.8−4.82.501.66

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →