Lille — Brest 1:1

Lille

1:1

Brest

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

A draw, but Lille created more (2.05 xG against 0.79) — points dropped.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Lille	1	2.05	−1.0	2.20
Brest	1	0.79	+0.2	0.60

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
5'	Mama Baldé	Brest	0.11	Gautier Lloris
63'	Olivier Giroud (penalty)	Lille	0.76

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
92'	Nianzou Kouassi	Lille	0.50	saved, header, from a set piece
82'	Ibrahim Kanté	Brest	0.29	off target
50'	Benjamin André	Lille	0.23	saved, header, from a corner

Shots: Lille 17, Brest 8; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 2 and 0.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Lille 0.17, Brest 0.32: about even. In the second half xG was Lille 1.89, Brest 0.46: a clear edge for Lille. Lille scored 1 from 2.05 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Lille: +7.3 for the season (2 in the table). Brest: −3.8 (9). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Strasbourg — Paris Saint-Germain 1:3Troyes — Lens 1:3

All Ligue 1 matches with xG →