Pitch Radar

Dynamo Moscow vs Akhmat Grozny: what the numbers say

RPL · Round 13 · 31 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win57%Dynamo Moscow
Draw26%
Away win18%Akhmat Grozny
Expected points, home1.96

What to expect

Dynamo Moscow are favourites: 57% to win against 18%. Attack against defence: Dynamo Moscow should create more, 1.29 expected goals a match against 0.99. Read the table with care: Dynamo Moscow have taken 3.5 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Dynamo Moscow391915.5+3.51.430.94
Akhmat Grozny1091011.5−1.51.051.16

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table →