The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Krasnodar are favourites: 68% to win against 12%. Attack against defence: Krasnodar should create more, 1.74 expected goals a match against 0.90. Read the table with care: Krasnodar have taken 7.4 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moscow | 15 | 9 | 5 | 5.2 | −0.1 | 0.77 | 2.20 |
| Krasnodar | 1 | 9 | 21 | 13.6 | +7.4 | 1.28 | 1.03 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.