The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.45.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel Voronezh | 0 | 0.74 | −0.7 | 0.99 |
| Orenburg | 0 | 1.19 | −1.2 | 1.71 |
Fakel Voronezh: −5.6 for the season (16 in the table). Orenburg: −4.3 (11). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.