Points. 3 points from 8.6 xPTS (−5.6) — the biggest underperformance in the league. By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 14th in the league, but 16th in the table. Source of the shortfall: missed chances (−1.4 goals vs xG).
Attack. 0.82 xG per match — 15th of 16 (league average 1.21): the attack creates less than most rivals. Only 6 goals scored from 7.4 xG (−1.4): the chances are there, the finishing is not. If the chance quality holds, the goals will come.
Defence. 1.37 xGA per match — 14th of 16 for solidity (league average 1.21). Conceded 13 goals from 12.3 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed.
Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.62 points per match: expected pace 1.0 points per match vs the current 0.3.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 0.33 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.22. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 6.1 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Moscow | home | 2026-10-10 | 1.57 |
| Krylia Sovetov | away | 2026-10-17 | 0.73 |
| Rodina Moscow | home | 2026-10-24 | 2.00 |
| Rubin Kazan | away | 2026-10-31 | 1.00 |
| Dynamo Moscow | home | 2026-11-07 | 0.82 |