Fakel Voronezh

Next match

Akron Tolyatti · away, 21 Nov 2026
Win 24% · draw 30% · defeat 46%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A tough run.

What the numbers say

Points. 6 points from 12.5 xPTS (−6.5) — the biggest underperformance in the league. By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 15th in the league, but 16th in the table. Source of the shortfall: missed chances (−2.3 goals vs xG) and extra goals conceded (+2.8 vs xGA).

Attack. 0.81 xG per match — 16th of 16 (league average 1.24): creates less in front of goal than anyone in the league. Scored 9 goals from 11.3 xG — 21% fewer than expected. Finishing is clearly below par — the chances are the same, so the goals will probably follow.

Defence. 1.45 xGA per match — 14th of 16 for solidity (league average 1.24): allows plenty of chances near its own goal. Conceded 23 goals from 20.2 xGA — 14% more than expected. The gap is small and usually closes over a season.

Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.46 points per match: expected pace 0.9 points per match vs the current 0.4.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 0.43 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 0.81. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 4.0 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Fakel Voronezh and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full RPL xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league