The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
The score matched the game: Zenit was the better side by chances too.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel Voronezh | 0 | 0.31 | −0.3 | 0.36 |
| Zenit | 1 | 1.82 | −0.8 | 2.44 |
Fakel Voronezh: −5.6 for the season (16 in the table). Zenit: +2.9 (5). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.