Points. 18 points from 15.1 xPTS (+2.9). By quality of play (xPTS) the club sits exactly where it is in the table: 5th. Source of the surplus: finishing (+6.0 goals above xG).
Attack. 1.44 xG per match — 4th of 16 (league average 1.21): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 19 goals from 13.0 xG (+6.0): the ball is going in more often than such chances usually allow. Finishing like this rarely lasts.
Defence. 1.00 xGA per match — 5th of 16 for solidity (league average 1.21). Conceded 9 goals from 9.0 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed.
Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.32 per match: expected pace 1.7 points per match vs the current 2.0.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 2.00 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.70. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 8.5 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Krasnodar | away | 2026-10-10 | 1.29 |
| Akhmat Grozny | home | 2026-10-17 | 1.93 |
| Dynamo Makhachkala | home | 2026-10-24 | 1.68 |
| Krylia Sovetov | away | 2026-10-31 | 1.44 |
| Rostov | home | 2026-11-07 | 2.14 |