Zenit
Next match
Rubin KazanZenitRubin Kazan · away, 21 Nov 2026
Win 53% · draw 27% · defeat 20%
Fixture difficulty
The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.
What the numbers say
Points. 31 points from 25.6 xPTS (+5.4). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 2nd in the league, but 1st in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+10.1 goals above xG).
Attack. 1.57 xG per match — 3rd of 16 (league average 1.24): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 32 goals from 21.9 xG — 46% more than expected — the best finishing in the league. A gap this size usually does not hold: it tends to shrink within a dozen rounds.
Defence. 0.92 xGA per match — 3rd of 16 for solidity (league average 1.24): allows few chances near its own goal. Conceded 15 goals from 12.9 xGA — 16% more than expected. The gap is small and usually closes over a season.
Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.38 per match: expected pace 1.8 points per match vs the current 2.2.
Round by round
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Fixtures and forecast
Current pace is 2.21 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.83. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 9.2 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Win | Draw | Defeat | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin Kazan | away | 2026-11-21 | 53% | 27% | 20% | 1.85 |
 CSKA Moscow | away | 2026-11-28 | 40% | 25% | 36% | 1.44 |
 Baltika Kaliningrad | home | 2026-12-05 | 44% | 30% | 27% | 1.61 |
 Fakel Voronezh | home | 2027-02-27 | 73% | 18% | 9% | 2.38 |
 Orenburg | home | 2027-03-06 | 55% | 25% | 20% | 1.89 |
Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Zenit and it will write when results and performance diverge.
The season so far
Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.
Akron Tolyatti 5:0 · awayOrenburg 3:0 · away
Rodina Moscow 1:2 
Dynamo Moscow 3:0 
Spartak Moscow 0:2 · awayFakel Voronezh 1:0 · awayCSKA Moscow 1:2 
Lokomotiv Moscow 2:1 Baltika Kaliningrad 3:2 · away
Krasnodar 3:2 · away
Akhmat Grozny 3:2 
Dynamo Makhachkala 2:0 
Krylia Sovetov 3:0 · away
Rostov 2:2 Rubin Kazan · 11.21CSKA Moscow · 11.28Baltika Kaliningrad · 12.05Fakel Voronezh · 02.27Orenburg · 03.06Club players
Around them in the table
| Place | Club | P | Points | xPTS | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 14 | 31 | 25.6 | +5.4 |
| 2 | Dynamo Moscow | 14 | 31 | 23.7 | +7.3 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 14 | 29 | 27.5 | +1.5 |