The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.08.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akhmat Grozny | 3 | 1.17 | +1.8 | 1.42 |
| Krylia Sovetov | 3 | 1.09 | +1.9 | 1.30 |
Akhmat Grozny: −1.5 for the season (10 in the table). Krylia Sovetov: −1.6 (9). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.