The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.28.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rostov | 0 | 0.61 | −0.6 | 1.07 |
| CSKA Moscow | 0 | 0.89 | −0.9 | 1.57 |
Rostov: −1.6 for the season (12 in the table). CSKA Moscow: +3.1 (4). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.