The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
The score matched the game: Baltika Kaliningrad was the better side by chances too.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krylia Sovetov | 0 | 0.30 | −0.3 | 0.48 |
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 2 | 1.45 | +0.6 | 2.26 |
Krylia Sovetov: −1.6 for the season (9 in the table). Baltika Kaliningrad: −5.2 (8). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.