Rostov
Next match
Rostov
Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov · at home, 20 Nov 2026
Win 29% · draw 31% · defeat 40%
Fixture difficulty
The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.
What the numbers say
Points. 19 points from 16.8 xPTS (+2.2). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 11th in the league, but 6th in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+5.4 goals above xG).
Attack. 0.90 xG per match — 15th of 16 (league average 1.24): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 18 goals from 12.6 xG — 43% more than expected. A gap this size usually does not hold: it tends to shrink within a dozen rounds.
Defence. 1.11 xGA per match — 6th of 16 for solidity (league average 1.24): allows few chances near its own goal. Conceded 19 goals from 15.5 xGA — 23% more than expected. Opponents are finishing better than the quality of their chances allows.
Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.16 per match: expected pace 1.2 points per match vs the current 1.4.
Round by round
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Fixtures and forecast
Current pace is 1.36 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.16. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 5.8 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Win | Draw | Defeat | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krylia Sovetov | home | 2026-11-20 | 29% | 31% | 40% | 1.19 |
 Krasnodar | home | 2026-11-29 | 33% | 31% | 36% | 1.31 |
 Fakel Voronezh | away | 2026-12-05 | 37% | 33% | 30% | 1.44 |
 CSKA Moscow | away | 2027-02-27 | 19% | 24% | 57% | 0.81 |
 Baltika Kaliningrad | home | 2027-03-06 | 24% | 33% | 43% | 1.04 |
Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Rostov and it will write when results and performance diverge.
The season so far
Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.
Orenburg 1:2 · away
Rodina Moscow 4:2 · awayCSKA Moscow 0:0 
Rubin Kazan 1:1 
Akhmat Grozny 1:4 · awayKrasnodar 0:1 · awayFakel Voronezh 3:1 
Spartak Moscow 0:3 · away
Dynamo Moscow 0:3 
Akron Tolyatti 1:0 Baltika Kaliningrad 0:0 · away
Lokomotiv Moscow 2:0 
Dynamo Makhachkala 3:0 · away
Zenit 2:2 · awayKrylia Sovetov · 11.20Krasnodar · 11.29Fakel Voronezh · 12.05CSKA Moscow · 02.27Baltika Kaliningrad · 03.06Club players
Around them in the table
| Place | Club | P | Points | xPTS | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Krasnodar | 14 | 26 | 19.4 | +6.6 |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 14 | 26 | 23.3 | +2.7 |
| 6 | Rostov | 14 | 19 | 16.8 | +2.2 |
| 7 | Krylia Sovetov | 14 | 18 | 22.0 | −4.0 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 14 | 18 | 15.9 | +2.1 |