The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
The score matched the game: Baltika Kaliningrad was the better side by chances too.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moscow | 0 | 0.21 | −0.2 | 0.10 |
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 3 | 3.11 | −0.1 | 2.84 |
Rodina Moscow: −0.1 for the season (15 in the table). Baltika Kaliningrad: −5.2 (8). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.