Rubin Kazan — Dynamo Makhachkala 3:1

Rubin Kazan

3:1

Dynamo Makhachkala

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

Dynamo Makhachkala created more (1.30 xG against 0.76) and left with nothing.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Rubin Kazan	3	0.76	+2.2	0.94
Dynamo Makhachkala	1	1.30	−0.3	1.77

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
61'	Ilya Rozhkov	Rubin Kazan	0.03	Ignacio Saavedra
72'	Miro (penalty)	Dynamo Makhachkala	0.75
86'	Aleksandar Jukic	Rubin Kazan	0.11	Anderson Arroyo
94'	Bogdan Jocic	Rubin Kazan	0.44	Ilya Samoshnikov

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
94'	Bogdan Jocic	Rubin Kazan	0.44	goal
92'	Dmitri Aleksandrov	Dynamo Makhachkala	0.13	off target
8'	Mohamed Azzi	Dynamo Makhachkala	0.11	blocked

Shots: Rubin Kazan 7, Dynamo Makhachkala 10; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 1 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Rubin Kazan 0.10, Dynamo Makhachkala 0.29: about even. In the second half xG was Rubin Kazan 0.67, Dynamo Makhachkala 1.01: a small edge for Dynamo Makhachkala. Rubin Kazan scored 3 from 0.76 xG: well above what they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Rubin Kazan: +2.1 for the season (8 in the table). Dynamo Makhachkala: −2.6 (11). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Rodina Moscow — Baltika Kaliningrad 0:3Spartak Moscow — Orenburg 1:1

All RPL matches with xG →