The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Dynamo Makhachkala created more (1.30 xG against 0.76) and left with nothing.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin Kazan | 3 | 0.76 | +2.2 | 0.94 |
| Dynamo Makhachkala | 1 | 1.30 | −0.3 | 1.77 |
Rubin Kazan: +1.7 for the season (6 in the table). Dynamo Makhachkala: −2.0 (7). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.