The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A draw, but Spartak Moscow created more (1.81 xG against 0.40) — points dropped.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Moscow | 1 | 1.81 | −0.8 | 2.37 |
| Orenburg | 1 | 0.40 | +0.6 | 0.43 |
Spartak Moscow: +0.7 for the season (2 in the table). Orenburg: −4.3 (11). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.