Points. 12 points from 14.0 xPTS (−2.0). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 6th in the league, but 7th in the table. Source of the shortfall: extra goals conceded (+6.2 vs xGA).
Attack. 1.38 xG per match — 6th of 16 (league average 1.21): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 15 goals from 12.4 xG (+2.6): the ball is going in more often than such chances usually allow. Finishing like this rarely lasts.
Defence. 1.08 xGA per match — 7th of 16 for solidity (league average 1.21). Conceded 16 goals from 9.8 xGA — 6.2 more than expected: opponents are scoring almost everything and the goalkeeper is not helping. By chances allowed the defence is league-average — some of these goals come down to bad luck and should drop.
Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.22 points per match: expected pace 1.6 points per match vs the current 1.3.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 1.33 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.45. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 7.2 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orenburg | away | 2026-10-10 | 1.20 |
| Akron Tolyatti | home | 2026-10-17 | 2.03 |
| Zenit | away | 2026-10-24 | 1.05 |
| Rostov | home | 2026-10-31 | 2.05 |
| Baltika Kaliningrad | away | 2026-11-07 | 0.91 |