The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
The score matched the game: Frosinone was the better side by chances too.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 0 | 1.82 | −1.8 | 1.31 |
| Frosinone | 3 | 1.95 | +1.1 | 1.47 |
Fiorentina: −2.3 for the season (17 in the table). Frosinone: +4.8 (6). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.