Frosinone

Next match

AC Milan · away, 22 Nov 2026
Win 18% · draw 17% · defeat 65%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.

What the numbers say

Points. 20 points from 14.8 xPTS (+5.2). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 9th in the league, but 6th in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+2.2 goals above xG) and conceding less than expected (−8.9 vs xGA).

Attack. 1.98 xG per match — 5th of 20 (league average 1.70): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 24 goals from 21.8 xG — 10% more than expected. A small finishing bonus, still within the usual spread.

Defence. 2.18 xGA per match — 17th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.70): allows plenty of chances near its own goal. Conceded 15 goals from 23.9 xGA — 37% fewer than expected — the luckiest goal in the league. Part of these clean sheets rests on luck rather than defending.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.47 per match: expected pace 1.3 points per match vs the current 1.8.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.82 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.35. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 6.8 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Frosinone and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Serie A xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league