Lazio — AC Milan 2:2

Lazio

2:2

AC Milan

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.20.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Lazio	2	2.36	−0.4	1.51
AC Milan	2	2.16	−0.2	1.29

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
9'	Matteo Cancellieri	Lazio	0.51	Mattia Zaccagni
38'	Tijjani Noslin	Lazio	0.78
64'	Diego Moreira	AC Milan	0.28	Christian Pulisic
66'	Diego Moreira	AC Milan	0.05	Adrien Rabiot

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
38'	Tijjani Noslin	Lazio	0.78	goal, header
44'	Mario Gila	AC Milan	0.71	saved, from a corner
9'	Matteo Cancellieri	Lazio	0.51	goal

Shots: Lazio 8, AC Milan 16; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 4 and 2.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Lazio 2.35, AC Milan 0.96: a clear edge for Lazio. In the second half xG was Lazio 0.02, AC Milan 1.24: a clear edge for AC Milan. The edge in chances passed from Lazio to AC Milan.

How it fits the season

Lazio: +11.0 for the season (1 in the table). AC Milan: +5.8 (4). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Genoa — Frosinone 1:1Atalanta — Cagliari 1:2

All Serie A matches with xG →