Lazio

Next match

Lecce · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 73% · draw 15% · defeat 12%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A kind run.

What the numbers say

Points. 29 points from 18.0 xPTS (+11.0) — the biggest overperformance in the league. By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 8th in the league, but 1st in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+4.9 goals above xG) and conceding less than expected (−6.3 vs xGA).

Attack. 1.83 xG per match — 8th of 20 (league average 1.70): an average attack for this league. Scored 25 goals from 20.1 xG — 24% more than expected — the best finishing in the league. Finishing is clearly above par — some of these goals will probably stop going in.

Defence. 1.39 xGA per match — 8th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.70): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 9 goals from 15.3 xGA — 41% fewer than expected. The goalkeeper and opponent misses are carrying the team; keeping this up over a full season is rare.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 1.00 per match: expected pace 1.6 points per match vs the current 2.6.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 2.64 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.73. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 8.6 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Lazio and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Serie A xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league