Roma — Atalanta 2:1

Roma

2:1

Atalanta

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: Roma was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Roma	2	3.54	−1.5	2.70
Atalanta	1	0.77	+0.2	0.22

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
46'	Éderson	Atalanta	0.07
88'	Mario Hermoso	Roma	0.09	Matìas Soulè Malvano
92'	Matìas Soulè Malvano	Roma	0.06	Paulo Dybala

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
58'	Nikola Krstovic	Atalanta	0.37	off target
90'	Matìas Soulè Malvano	Roma	0.37	off target
33'	Paulo Dybala	Roma	0.34	saved, header

Shots: Roma 39, Atalanta 6; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 5 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Roma 1.55, Atalanta 0.07: a clear edge for Roma. In the second half xG was Roma 2.03, Atalanta 0.70: a clear edge for Roma. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Roma scored 2 from 3.54 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Roma: +3.4 for the season (3 in the table). Atalanta: +1.2 (12). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Fiorentina — Torino 1:2Inter — Napoli 3:2

All Serie A matches with xG →