Roma

Next match

Parma · away, 21 Nov 2026
Win 83% · draw 11% · defeat 6%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A kind run.

What the numbers say

Points. 27 points from 23.6 xPTS (+3.4). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 2nd in the league, but 3rd in the table. Source of the surplus: conceding less than expected (−5.1 vs xGA).

Attack. 2.82 xG per match — 2nd of 20 (league average 1.70): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 31 goals from 31.0 xG — finishing is on par. More goals per match than any club in the league.

Defence. 1.38 xGA per match — 6th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.70): allows few chances near its own goal. Conceded 10 goals from 15.1 xGA — 34% fewer than expected. Part of these clean sheets rests on luck rather than defending.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.31 per match: expected pace 2.1 points per match vs the current 2.5.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 2.45 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.98. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 9.9 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Roma and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Serie A xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league