Points. 12 points from 11.2 xPTS (+0.8). By quality of play (xPTS) the club sits exactly where it is in the table: 1st. Points match the quality of play.
Attack. 3.45 xG per match — 1st of 20 (league average 1.72): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Only 12 goals scored from 13.8 xG (−1.8): the chances are there, the finishing is not. If the chance quality holds, the goals will come.
Defence. 0.74 xGA per match — 2nd of 20 for solidity (league average 1.72). Conceded 1 goal from 3.0 xGA — 2.0 fewer than expected: the goalkeeper is bailing them out or opponents are missing. The defence itself is one of the most solid in the league, so even after a correction they will concede little.
Playing to its level. Points (12) are close to the quality of play (11.2 xPTS).
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 3.00 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 2.52. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 12.6 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | home | 2026-09-19 | 2.29 |
| Como | away | 2026-10-11 | 2.20 |
| Genoa | home | 2026-10-17 | 2.88 |
| Napoli | away | 2026-10-25 | 2.37 |
| Cagliari | home | 2026-10-28 | 2.85 |