The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Rayo Vallecano | Osasuna | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 12 | 13 |
| Points | 8 | 8 |
| xPTS | 7.7 | 9.1 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +0.3 | −1.1 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.27 |
| xGA per match | 1.86 | 1.71 |
| Scored | 11 | 6 |
| Conceded | 16 | 13 |
By quality of play Osasuna is ahead: 9.1 xPTS against 7.7. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Rayo Vallecano: +0.3, Osasuna: −1.1.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Rayo Vallecano — 6.5, Osasuna — 5.9.