The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Cagliari | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 4 | 5 |
| Points | 12 | 11 |
| xPTS | 5.8 | 8.9 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +6.2 | +2.1 |
| xG per match | 1.09 | 1.94 |
| xGA per match | 1.75 | 1.18 |
| Scored | 5 | 10 |
| Conceded | 2 | 4 |
By quality of play AC Milan is ahead: 8.9 xPTS against 5.8. In the table the gap is 1 points. The gap between points and play — Cagliari: +6.2, AC Milan: +2.1.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Cagliari — 2.7, AC Milan — 9.4.