LaLiga fantasy: who to pick for Round 13
The list comes from two things: how much a player creates per 90 minutes (xG + xA) and how favourable his club's next match is. We know nothing about injuries or rotation — this is a hint, not a line-up.
Who to pick
Output per 90 minutes multiplied by the points his club is expected to take in the next match.
| Player | Club | Opponent | xG+xA per 90 | Club's chance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raphinha |  Barcelona | home to Villarreal | 1.72 | 72% | 1.32 |
| Karim Adeyemi | Barcelona | home to Villarreal | 1.56 | 72% | 1.20 |
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |  Real Madrid | home to Celta Vigo | 1.46 | 71% | 1.12 |
| Lamine Yamal | Barcelona | home to Villarreal | 1.45 | 72% | 1.11 |
| Jonathan Christian David |  Atlético Madrid | away to Getafe | 1.51 | 61% | 1.04 |
| Dani Olmo | Barcelona | home to Villarreal | 1.29 | 72% | 0.99 |
| Arda Güler | Real Madrid | home to Celta Vigo | 1.19 | 71% | 0.92 |
| Fermín López | Barcelona | home to Villarreal | 0.99 | 72% | 0.76 |
| Vinícius Júnior | Real Madrid | home to Celta Vigo | 0.93 | 71% | 0.72 |
| Anthony Gordon | Barcelona | home to Villarreal | 0.85 | 72% | 0.65 |
| Julián Álvarez | Atlético Madrid | away to Getafe | 0.94 | 61% | 0.65 |
| Alex Berenguer |  Athletic Club | home to Espanyol | 0.81 | 60% | 0.55 |
Running hot
Scoring more than their chances are worth. Finishing like that rarely holds: they cost a lot and the return can drop.
| Player | Club | Goals | xG | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raphinha | Barcelona | 15 | 11.33 | +3.7 |
| Sergio Camello |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 3.58 | +3.4 |
| Álex Baena | Atlético Madrid | 5 | 1.69 | +3.3 |
| Yassir Zabiri |  Racing Santander | 8 | 5.26 | +2.7 |
| Luka Sucic |  Real Sociedad | 4 | 1.30 | +2.7 |
| Adrián Niño |  Málaga | 5 | 2.42 | +2.6 |
Owed goals
The chances are there, the goals are not. If the chance quality holds, the goals will probably come back — and they are cheap now.
| Player | Club | Goals | xG | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayoze Pérez |  Villarreal | 1 | 4.67 | −3.7 |
| Orri Óskarsson | Real Sociedad | 3 | 5.88 | −2.9 |
| Antony |  Real Betis | 0 | 2.88 | −2.9 |
| Karim Adeyemi | Barcelona | 2 | 4.80 | −2.8 |
| Vinícius Júnior | Real Madrid | 1 | 3.59 | −2.6 |
| Antonio Martínez |  Alavés | 0 | 2.47 | −2.5 |
Understat data, refreshed twice a day. We do not give betting tips and we do not know about injuries or suspensions — check the line-ups.
Who to pick in LaLiga fantasy for Round 13?
Top of our list: Raphinha (Barcelona; opponent: Villarreal, home); Karim Adeyemi (Barcelona; opponent: Villarreal, home); Kylian Mbappe-Lottin (Real Madrid; opponent: Celta Vigo, home). The list is built from a player's output per 90 minutes and the strength of his club's next match; we do not know about injuries and rotation, so check them before choosing.
How is the LaLiga fantasy ranking calculated?
For each player we take xG and xA per 90 minutes (how much he creates and scores by chance quality) and multiply by his club's expected points in the next match divided by three. Players with at least 270 minutes are included: 78 right now. It is an assessment of play, not a forecast and not betting.
Who in LaLiga scores more than his chances are worth?
Raphinha (Barcelona) is furthest above xG: 15 goals from 11.3 xG, 3.7 more. Finishing like that usually does not hold all season, so paying a lot for such a player is risky.
Who in LaLiga has fewer goals than his chances are worth?
Ayoze Pérez (Villarreal) is furthest below xG: 1 goal from 4.7 xG, 3.7 fewer. If the chance quality holds, goals usually move toward xG, but over a handful of matches that is no guarantee.