Werder Bremen

Next match

Hamburger SV · at home, 22 Nov 2026
Win 62% · draw 21% · defeat 17%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A kind run.

What the numbers say

Points. 15 points from 12.4 xPTS (+2.6). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 9th in the league, but 6th in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+2.7 goals above xG).

Attack. 1.59 xG per match — 13th of 18 (league average 1.85): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 17 goals from 14.3 xG — 19% more than expected. A small finishing bonus, still within the usual spread.

Defence. 1.56 xGA per match — 5th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.85): allows few chances near its own goal. Conceded 15 goals from 14.1 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed. What they allow is what they concede.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.28 per match: expected pace 1.4 points per match vs the current 1.7.

9 matches played. Over this distance the metrics already show a trend, but randomness is still large — treat this as an early signal, not a verdict.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.67 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.39. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 6.9 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Werder Bremen and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Bundesliga xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league