Points. 4 points from 2.2 xPTS (+1.8). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 15th in the league, but 10th in the table. A small surplus, still within the margin of error. Source: finishing (+2.0 goals above xG).
Attack. 0.99 xG per match — 16th of 18 (league average 1.98): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 5 goals from 3.0 xG (+2.0): the ball is going in more often than such chances usually allow. Finishing like this rarely lasts.
Defence. 1.86 xGA per match — 7th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.98). Conceded 6 goals from 5.6 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed.
Playing to its level. Points (4) are close to the quality of play (2.2 xPTS).
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 1.33 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 0.86. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 4.3 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | home | 2026-09-19 | 0.79 |
| Borussia Dortmund | away | 2026-10-10 | 0.37 |
| Paderborn | home | 2026-10-17 | 1.85 |
| Mainz 05 | away | 2026-10-24 | 0.29 |
| Hoffenheim | home | 2026-10-31 | 0.98 |