Points. 9 points from 6.8 xPTS (+2.1). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 4th in the league, but 2nd in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+4.3 goals above xG) and conceding less than expected (−0.9 vs xGA).
Attack. 1.90 xG per match — 11th of 18 (league average 1.98): an average attack for this league. Scored 10 goals from 5.7 xG (+4.3): the ball is going in more often than such chances usually allow. Finishing like this rarely lasts.
Defence. 0.65 xGA per match — 1st of 18 for solidity (league average 1.98). Conceded 1 goal from 1.9 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed.
Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.72 per match: expected pace 2.3 points per match vs the current 3.0.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 3.00 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.80. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 9.0 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | away | 2026-09-19 | 1.98 |
| Schalke 04 | home | 2026-10-10 | 2.77 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | away | 2026-10-17 | 1.11 |
| Bayern Munich | home | 2026-10-24 | 1.20 |
| Augsburg | away | 2026-10-31 | 1.93 |