Freiburg

Next match

Elversberg · away, 21 Nov 2026
Win 59% · draw 21% · defeat 20%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A kind run.

What the numbers say

Points. 19 points from 16.8 xPTS (+2.2). By quality of play (xPTS) the club sits exactly where it is in the table: 3rd. Source of the surplus: finishing (+3.9 goals above xG).

Attack. 1.79 xG per match — 9th of 18 (league average 1.85): an average attack for this league. Scored 20 goals from 16.1 xG — 24% more than expected. Finishing is clearly above par — some of these goals will probably stop going in.

Defence. 1.19 xGA per match — 2nd of 18 for solidity (league average 1.85): allows few chances near its own goal. Conceded 10 goals from 10.7 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed. 3rd in the league for goals conceded per match, and the chances allowed back it up.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.25 per match: expected pace 1.9 points per match vs the current 2.1.

9 matches played. Over this distance the metrics already show a trend, but randomness is still large — treat this as an early signal, not a verdict.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 2.11 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.81. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 9.0 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Freiburg and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Bundesliga xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league