Hamburger SV — Mainz 05 0:5
Hamburger SV
Mainz 05The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Who deserved it
The score matched the game: Mainz 05 was the better side by chances too.
The numbers
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 0 | 0.26 | −0.3 | 0.10 |
| Mainz 05 | 5 | 3.28 | +1.7 | 2.84 |
Goals
| Minute | Goal | Team | Shot xG | Assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18' | Sheraldo Becker | Mainz 05 | 0.37 | Kaishu Sano |
| 40' | Philipp Mwene | Mainz 05 | 0.92 | Sheraldo Becker |
| 47' | Phillip Tietz | Mainz 05 | 0.43 | Sheraldo Becker |
| 82' | Phillip Tietz | Mainz 05 | 0.09 | Jae-Sung Lee |
| 90' | Ransford Königsdörffer | Mainz 05 | 0.37 | Philipp Mwene |
Key chances
| Minute | Player | Team | xG | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40' | Philipp Mwene | Mainz 05 | 0.92 | goal |
| 79' | Nadiem Amiri | Mainz 05 | 0.46 | saved |
| 47' | Phillip Tietz | Mainz 05 | 0.43 | goal |
Shots: Hamburger SV 8, Mainz 05 17; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 0 and 5.
How the game went
In the first half xG was Hamburger SV 0.02, Mainz 05 1.73: a big edge for Mainz 05. In the second half xG was Hamburger SV 0.22, Mainz 05 1.55: a clear edge for Mainz 05. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Mainz 05 scored 5 from 3.28 xG: well above what they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.
How it fits the season
Hamburger SV: +3.9 for the season (11 in the table). Mainz 05: −4.8 (12). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.
Eintracht Frankfurt — 
Augsburg 1:4