The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
The score matched the game: Mainz 05 was the better side by chances too.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 0 | 0.26 | −0.3 | 0.10 |
| Mainz 05 | 5 | 3.28 | +1.7 | 2.84 |
Hamburger SV: +0.2 for the season (16 in the table). Mainz 05: −1.0 (6). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.