Hamburger SV

Next match

Werder Bremen · away, 22 Nov 2026
Win 17% · draw 21% · defeat 62%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A tough run.

What the numbers say

Points. 12 points from 8.1 xPTS (+3.9). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 15th in the league, but 11th in the table. Source of the surplus: a little of both attack and defence: goal difference −10 against an expected −7.5.

Attack. 1.26 xG per match — 15th of 18 (league average 1.85): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 10 goals from 11.3 xG — 12% fewer than expected. A small finishing shortfall, still within the usual spread.

Defence. 2.10 xGA per match — 11th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.85): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 20 goals from 18.9 xGA — 6% more than expected. The gap is small and usually closes over a season.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.43 per match: expected pace 0.9 points per match vs the current 1.3.

9 matches played. Over this distance the metrics already show a trend, but randomness is still large — treat this as an early signal, not a verdict.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.33 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.02. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 5.1 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Hamburger SV and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Bundesliga xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league