Mainz 05

Next match

Augsburg · away, 22 Nov 2026
Win 42% · draw 19% · defeat 39%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.

What the numbers say

Points. 10 points from 14.8 xPTS (−4.8). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 6th in the league, but 12th in the table. Source of the shortfall: extra goals conceded (+3.3 vs xGA).

Attack. 2.07 xG per match — 6th of 18 (league average 1.85): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 18 goals from 18.6 xG — finishing is on par. What they create is what they score.

Defence. 1.74 xGA per match — 9th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.85): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 19 goals from 15.7 xGA — 21% more than expected. Opponents are finishing better than the quality of their chances allows.

Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.53 points per match: expected pace 1.6 points per match vs the current 1.1.

9 matches played. Over this distance the metrics already show a trend, but randomness is still large — treat this as an early signal, not a verdict.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.11 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.57. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 7.9 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Mainz 05 and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Bundesliga xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league