Pitch Radar

RB Leipzig vs Augsburg: what the numbers say

Bundesliga · Round 9 · 7 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win67%RB Leipzig
Draw17%
Away win16%Augsburg
Expected points, home2.19

What to expect

RB Leipzig are favourites: 67% to win against 16%. Attack against defence: RB Leipzig should create more, 2.16 expected goals a match against 1.71. Read the table with care: Augsburg have taken 2.4 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
RB Leipzig9467.8−1.82.191.28
Augsburg4474.7+2.42.142.13

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →