RB Leipzig

Next match

Union Berlin · away, 21 Nov 2026
Win 72% · draw 16% · defeat 12%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A kind run.

What the numbers say

Points. 18 points from 17.4 xPTS (+0.6). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 2nd in the league, but 4th in the table. Points match the quality of play. On top of that, finishing runs above expectation (+4.3 vs xG) and fewer goals conceded than expected (−2.3 vs xGA).

Attack. 2.52 xG per match — 2nd of 18 (league average 1.85): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 27 goals from 22.7 xG — 19% more than expected — the best finishing in the league. A small finishing bonus, still within the usual spread.

Defence. 1.70 xGA per match — 8th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.85): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 13 goals from 15.3 xGA — 15% fewer than expected. The gap is small, still within the usual spread.

Playing to its level. Points (18) are close to the quality of play (17.4 xPTS).

9 matches played. Over this distance the metrics already show a trend, but randomness is still large — treat this as an early signal, not a verdict.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 2.00 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.71. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 8.6 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow RB Leipzig and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Bundesliga xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league