Pitch Radar

Arsenal vs Everton: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 8 · 24 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win58%Arsenal
Draw23%
Away win20%Everton
Expected points, home1.95

What to expect

Arsenal are favourites: 58% to win against 20%. Attack against defence: Arsenal should create more, 1.66 expected goals a match against 1.38. Read the table with care: Arsenal have taken 2.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Arsenal25129.8+2.21.881.09
Everton7597.6+1.41.671.44

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →