Aston Villa — Manchester City 2:1

Aston Villa

2:1

Manchester City

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

Aston Villa won against the run of chances: Manchester City created more (2.29 xG against 0.65).

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Aston Villa	2	0.65	+1.4	0.43
Manchester City	1	2.29	−1.3	2.40

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
5'	Nicolas Jackson	Aston Villa	0.12	John McGinn
51'	Erling Haaland	Manchester City	0.53	Iliman Ndiaye
59'	Nicolas Jackson	Aston Villa	0.08	Ibrahim Mbaye

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
51'	Erling Haaland	Manchester City	0.53	goal, header, from a set piece
67'	Josko Gvardiol	Manchester City	0.53	saved
20'	Mathis Cherki	Manchester City	0.39	saved

Shots: Aston Villa 8, Manchester City 15; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 0 and 4.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Aston Villa 0.47, Manchester City 0.58: about even. In the second half xG was Aston Villa 0.18, Manchester City 1.68: a big edge for Manchester City. Aston Villa scored 2 from 0.65 xG: more than they created. Manchester City scored 1 from 2.29 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Aston Villa: +2.5 for the season (10 in the table). Manchester City: +0.1 (3). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Coventry City — Fulham 0:1Arsenal — Everton 2:0Chelsea — Tottenham Hotspur 0:2

All EPL matches with xG →