The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Manchester City are favourites: 72% to win against 12%. Attack against defence: Manchester City should create more, 2.19 expected goals a match against 1.22. Read the table with care: Manchester City have taken 5.4 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 16 | 5 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| Manchester City | 1 | 5 | 15 | 9.6 | +5.4 | 2.21 | 1.44 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.