Bournemouth

Next match

Nottingham Forest · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 49% · draw 25% · defeat 27%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A kind run.

What the numbers say

Points. 15 points from 18.6 xPTS (−3.6). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 3rd in the league, but 7th in the table. Source of the shortfall: missed chances (−4.3 goals vs xG) and extra goals conceded (+2.5 vs xGA).

Attack. 2.03 xG per match — 3rd of 20 (league average 1.60): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 16 goals from 20.3 xG — 21% fewer than expected. Finishing is clearly below par — the chances are the same, so the goals will probably follow.

Defence. 1.15 xGA per match — 3rd of 20 for solidity (league average 1.60): allows few chances near its own goal. Conceded 14 goals from 11.5 xGA — 22% more than expected. Opponents are finishing better than the quality of their chances allows.

Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.36 points per match: expected pace 1.9 points per match vs the current 1.5.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.50 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.76. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 8.8 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Bournemouth and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full EPL xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league