Pitch Radar

Brentford vs Liverpool: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 7 · 17 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win53%Brentford
Draw22%
Away win26%Liverpool
Expected points, home1.80

What to expect

A slight edge to Brentford: 53% against 26%. Attack against defence: Brentford should create more, 1.75 expected goals a match against 1.57.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Brentford4598.4+0.62.101.50
Liverpool6597.9+1.11.651.39

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →