Manchester City — Ipswich Town 3:2

Manchester City

3:2

Ipswich Town

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: Manchester City was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Manchester City	3	4.01	−1.0	2.56
Ipswich Town	2	1.37	+0.6	0.34

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
18'	Phil Foden	Manchester City	0.64	Jéremy Doku
20'	Daizen Maeda	Ipswich Town	0.17	Guemissongui Ouattara
33'	Erling Haaland	Manchester City	0.34	Mateo Kovacic
68'	Erling Haaland	Manchester City	0.65	Iliman Ndiaye
89'	Zian Flemming (penalty)	Ipswich Town	0.76

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
68'	Erling Haaland	Manchester City	0.65	goal
18'	Phil Foden	Manchester City	0.64	goal
84'	Iliman Ndiaye	Manchester City	0.57	hit the woodwork

Shots: Manchester City 19, Ipswich Town 8; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 6 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Manchester City 1.46, Ipswich Town 0.18: a clear edge for Manchester City. In the second half xG was Manchester City 2.57, Ipswich Town 1.18: a clear edge for Manchester City. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Manchester City scored 3 from 4.01 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Manchester City: +0.1 for the season (3 in the table). Ipswich Town: +0.8 (14). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Everton — Chelsea 0:2Fulham — Hull City 1:0Brentford — Liverpool 1:2Newcastle United — Aston Villa 0:1

All EPL matches with xG →